Carbon Credit Global Market Size: Dynamics & Projections for 2023-2030

Carbon Credit Global Market Size: Dynamics & Projections for 2023-2030

By: CarbonCred

In 2022, the global carbon credit market demonstrated robust growth, reaching a substantial valuation of $364.03 billion USD. Projections for the carbon credits/carbon offsets market indicate a compelling compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.7% from 2023 to 2030. This surge is fueled by a myriad of factors, including an escalating demand for carbon credits driven by governmental initiatives worldwide. 

Governments, recognizing the urgency of addressing climate change, have implemented stringent policies and regulations aimed at curbing greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, companies subject to these regulations find themselves compelled to purchase carbon credits to offset their emissions and ensure compliance.

A notable example of this is the Energy Conservation Bill of 2022 passed by the Indian Government, a legislative move paving the way for the establishment of carbon credit markets. The United States, in 2022, emerged as the largest market for carbon credits in North America. The market's growth in the U.S. is primarily propelled by a combination of state-level programs and voluntary markets. States with cap-and-trade programs, such as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), impose emission limits, prompting companies to acquire carbon credits for compliance.

Simultaneously, voluntary carbon offset markets in the U.S. allow companies not bound by regulations to purchase carbon offsets voluntarily, reflecting a growing trend of corporate social responsibility and sustainability initiatives. Although the U.S. carbon credit market is currently smaller compared to European economies, it is on an upward trajectory and holds potential for significant contributions to emissions reduction in the future.

The burgeoning demand for carbon credits stems from heightened corporate awareness regarding sustainability and carbon footprint reduction as integral aspects of corporate social responsibility. As companies around the world continue to recognize the importance of mitigating environmental impact, sustained demand for carbon credits persists. Growing concerns about climate change and its anticipated consequences further contribute to the increased demand for carbon credits.

Despite these positive trends, the market faces challenges, with price volatility being a significant issue. The prices of carbon credits are subject to fluctuations influenced by supply and demand dynamics, posing challenges for companies attempting long-term planning. Price uncertainty can also hinder the effectiveness of carbon credits in providing sufficient financial incentives for emissions reduction.

Insights into Market Segmentation

The carbon credit market exhibits a predominant segment in compliance, accounting for a substantial 98.91% share of revenue in 2022. Compliance markets are characterized by regulations mandating companies and organizations to offset their carbon emissions by procuring carbon credits. These credits signify reductions in greenhouse gas emissions achieved through approved projects like renewable energy or energy-efficiency initiatives. Governments worldwide are implementing such regulations, driving the global compliance carbon credit market.

Project types in the carbon credit market include avoidance/reduction projects and removal/sequestration projects. In 2022, avoidance/reduction projects led with a dominant revenue share of 66.88%. Examples of avoidance/reduction projects encompass carbon offset initiatives from renewable energy projects and methane capture facilities. Companies can purchase credits generated by these carbon offset projects to offset their carbon emissions. Removal/sequestration projects involve nature-based and technology-based projects, contributing to the overall diversity of the carbon credit market.

End-use segments reveal the power sector as the market leader, claiming a 31.01% share of revenue in 2022. Industries such as power, energy, aviation, transportation, buildings, industrial, and others utilize carbon credits to offset emissions. In the power sector, low greenhouse gas (GHG) technologies are adopted to implement carbon-offsetting projects. Industries leverage carbon credits as a market-based mechanism to fund emission reduction projects and offset their own emissions.

Regional Market Dynamics

Europe commands the carbon credit market, capturing an impressive 89.56% share of revenue in 2022. The dominance of the European market is attributed to the European Union's Emissions Trading System (ETS), the world's largest carbon market. Established in 2005, the ETS encompasses over 11,000 installations across 31 European countries, accounting for approximately 45% of the EU's GHG emissions. Carbon credit prices in the EU ETS are influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with the EU setting a cap on total allowances. Factors such as economic conditions, energy prices, and climate policies contribute to price fluctuations.

North America is poised to witness the highest Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in the region over the forecast period. The region's adoption of carbon credits has been driven by market dynamics, including supply and demand, price volatility, and regulatory frameworks. Initiatives like the California cap-and-trade system and the Quebec-Ontario carbon market have provided pricing signals for GHG emissions reductions, encouraging the development of renewable energy and cleaner technologies.

Key Carbon Credit Market Players and Future Outlook

The carbon credit market is moderately fragmented, with key players engaging in Research and Development (R&D) and technological innovations. Notable companies such as EKI Energy Services Limited, NativeEnergy, ClearSky Climate Solutions, and 3Degrees Group contribute to the market's growth. These players actively participate in framework development to enhance their market share.

For instance, The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market launched its Core Carbon Principles and Program-level Assessment Framework for carbon credits in March 2023. This initiative aims to set thresholds on carbon emissions and sustainable development, underlining the industry's commitment to transparency and credibility.

Carbon Credit Market Projections

Projections for the global carbon credit market indicate substantial growth, with the market expected to reach $479.41 billion USD in size by the end of 2023. The revenue forecast for 2030 is an impressive $4.734 trillion USD, reflecting a robust Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 38.7% from 2023 to 2030. This incredible growth trajectory is underpinned by the continued global focus on carbon emissions reduction, regulatory advancements, and an increasing awareness of corporate responsibility in addressing climate change.

According to this report, the carbon credit market is poised for significant expansion this decade, driven by regulatory imperatives, corporate sustainability goals, and a collective commitment around the world to combat climate change. The market's trajectory underscores the pivotal role carbon credits play in fostering a sustainable and environmentally responsible global economy.

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